The world economy in the XXI c.: will the XX c. trends persist?

Stanisław Gomułka

Abstract


The paper proposes a list of five „stylized facts”, regarded as the main trends with respect to the development of the global economy in the 20th c. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue unchanged also in the 21st c. Taking into account this theory and those forecasts, the paper offers forecasts of the average GDP per capita for both the countries of the Technology Frontier Area (TFA) and the catching-up countries. By these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the last two centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence trend during the 21st c. Moreover, the global rate of growth of the per capita  GDP will continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but strongly declining in the second half.

Keywords


global economic trends; centuries XX and XXI; convergence; divergence

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